What Does Global Oil Supply & Demand Look Like Without The Expected Russian Oil Production Loss?

We are halfway through March and crude export data from Russia is coming in hot. 

Russian crude exports are back to the Jan highs, and while this is incomplete data, it does not bode well for the thesis that Russia will show a -500k b/d production decrease this month.

And for those of you saying that production does not equal exports, please remember that as an oil-exporting country, crude export is the supply. Even in the event that Russia cut production by ~500k b/d, if domestic demand fell by the same amount or more, the net result is more oil for the rest of the world. As a result, export is supply, so watching crude exports tell us the picture of their supplies.

So let's for a moment just entertain the idea that Russia does not lose any production at year-end. What happens to global oil supply & demand?

Spoiler: H2 2023 is still showing inventory draws...