What Should We Expect From OPEC+ Next Month?

We are 10 days away from rubber meeting the road. OPEC+'s surprise cut announcement will need to translate into actual supply losses, or it will lose all credibility. Our base case view is that with the exception of Russia, Saudi, UAE, and Kuwait will commit 100% to their voluntary cut promise. Iraq will commit to 70-80%.

Looking at OPEC+ total crude exports this month, this once again confirms our view that the cut announced in October did not result in any net reduction in supplies.

And if you revisit the WCTW article we published on OPEC+, you will note that the reason for the lack of supply loss is because of Russia increasing crude exports.