What To Expect For Natural Gas This Year

The latest storage projection update does not bode well for natural gas bulls. 

Using the latest heating degree day estimates (and assuming normal weather after Feb 17), we have US natural gas storage ending withdrawal season at ~1.82 Tcf. ICE is showing the market is expecting storage to end around ~1.87 Tcf.

The good news is that the bearish storage estimate is already somewhat baked into the latest price drop. The bad news is that if we end storage anywhere near the market's estimate, the possibility of a price spike during summertime greatly diminishes.