What To Expect For Russian Crude Exports Going Forward?

Russian crude exports finished January near an all-time high of ~5.15 million b/d. This begs the simple question, what should you expect going forward now that the product "ban" (to Europe) took place on Feb 5th?

For the crude side of the equation, the reduction in crude exports to Europe has been replaced by an incredible increase from India and China. For January, Russia exported a combined ~2.8 million b/d to India and China.

According to Kpler, Russian crude exports to Europe have fallen to just ~1.5 million b/d. With the two Asian countries now combined to take in the same amount as Europe in the past, it's no wonder that we haven't seen any material drop-off in Russian crude exports.