9 Comments
User's avatar
James's avatar

Why the focus on July options and not October for more breathing room?

Andrew N's avatar

What would be very helpful is if you were to provide a small table showing how much July 17 BNO call options at one or more of the strike prices you hold would be worth on July 17 at a few different oil prices, like 100, 110, 120, 130 140 and 150 say. Probably many of your readers could do this themselves, but I, for one, would have more confidence in your calculations than mine.

NotHereToPost's avatar

That is not their job man. Just ask claude or chatgpt or gemini to do this for you if you are unable to do the math yourself. If you don’t know how to do that then with all due respect I do not think you should be investing with options since you don’t yet have a grasp on how they work. You will het absolutely obliterated financially if you don’t know what you are doing any blindly copytrade others.

That table of theoretical values is dependent on realized and implied volatility and depends on when you would be selling the contracts if its before expiration or on.

Best I can offer is an interactive optimization engine and UI for finding brent contracts based on your prediction for peak price and timing of the peak:

https://zpeugh.github.io/donnys-crude-pain-trade

This is not financial advice either and the page was written a while ago so prices of premiums and spot price are outdated. Hopefully it still helps somewhat. Cheers

Ian's avatar

Agreed re: the increasingly lower likelihood of Hormuz reopening. What do you think about the possibility of a temporary oil crash in the event of a second SPR release?

HFI Research's avatar

Max flow already from SPR, no change.

Ian's avatar

Oh right, I forgot. Thank you!

Brian's avatar

Link to your current portfolio?- for subscribers

KC's avatar

It’s hard to sleep on the cusp of a generational wealth windfall, isn’t it 😮‍💨😂

HFI Research's avatar

I will post it in the chat.