HFI Research

HFI Research

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
(IMPORTANT) OPEC+ Policy: Perception Over Reality
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Oil

(IMPORTANT) OPEC+ Policy: Perception Over Reality

Don't try to make sense out of nonsense.

HFI Research's avatar
HFI Research
May 05, 2025
∙ Paid
9

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
(IMPORTANT) OPEC+ Policy: Perception Over Reality
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
2
2
Share

Warning sign icon 3d alert danger hazard caution safety attention emergency notification symbol on red background. Risk precaution security exclamation triangle message traffic signal alarm accident.

OPEC+ announced on Saturday that another truncated production increase (~411k b/d) will occur in June. This brings the total voluntary production increase to 959k b/d.

The oil market, rightfully so, sold off immediately on Sunday's open with WTI testing $55/bbl at one point. With the consensus already worried over the oil market balance of 2025 (due to demand worries and now supply increases from OPEC+), the production increase is giving bears more ammunition to the downside.

But as I explained in an article we published titled "OPEC+ Gameplan." The truncated production increase is not what it appears because it's never been a cohesive OPEC+ production cut. It has been a Saudi production cut since the beginning and any "material" increase in production will come from the Saudis.

In this article, I will give you my latest thoughts on the OPEC+ production increase and what I expect going forward. I will also give you my latest thoughts on the oil market and energy stocks.

Perception Over Reality

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 HFI Research
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More