(Public) My Podcast Interview With Kontrarian Korner
Kontrarian Korner was kind enough to ask me last week to do another interview with him to discuss the following topics. In particular, I wanted to highlight the fact that the recent OPEC+ truncated production increase isn’t really an increase at all. This particular insight was shared with you all in this public write-up:
(Public) OPEC+ Gameplan
Editor’s Note: This article was first published to paid subscribers on April 23. Given the news release today of OPEC+ announcing another truncated production increase for June, we thought it was a good time to share this.
But it’s always good to hear it explained in person instead of reading it.
I highly encourage you all to check Kontrarian Korner out. Ben has a lot of great guests on and I think you will find his podcast interviews insightful.
Here’s a summary of what we talked about:
The recent news from OPEC, and why the production cut that is now being unwound was really a Saudi production cut, not an OPEC cut.
Why the OPEC production boost doesn’t signal an incoming price war.
The disconnect between the narrative and reality when it comes to OPEC.
How tariff and macro uncertainty factor into the perception of oil demand for the rest of 2025.
How OPEC is forcing the inevitable, and why he thinks non-OPEC oil supply will disappoint to the downside moving forward.
Capex cuts in the Permian due to lower oil prices, and the disconnect between consensus US production vs. the HFI estimates.
Why he thinks we will see more Capex cuts in the Permian in coming months, especially if oil sits around $60 a barrel.
How all of this leads to a structural supply deficit for oil from 2026 and beyond.
The timing problem when it comes to buying energy equities and the disconnect between the fundamentals and the narrative when it comes to oil.
Why $70 a barrel was the worst case scenario for shale operators.
Why we could see more M&A in the Permian.
His view on tariff and trade deal negotiations, and why he doesn’t see a quick resolution.
His view on Iranian sanctions, and why they won’t be effective.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve being filled up and why logistical issues mean it will take a long time to refill.
Why natural gas will be the first energy commodity to go into a bull market, and why he thinks we could see a spike in natural gas this summer.
Potential scenarios where the US might have to shut in LNG export capacity in 2026.
What he prioritizes when he is looking at natural gas equities: the lowest cost producers, and producers that are not as hedged.
His thoughts on the challenges of entrepreneurship.
Book Recommendations: The Nvidia Way by Tae Kim, Source Code by Bill Gates & Shoe Dog by Phil Knight.
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It's on my playlist.
The macrovoices podcast with Dr anas was also very good, (but I'm sure everyone has already listened to that)