Hey - join those of us who are saying the same thing about the stock market. Where's all that transparent data that we thought we'd have by now? Price doesn't lie, and it's saying the market will be tight. And how ridiculous is it to even forecast a "1 million b/d" surplus? Are they seriously trying to say that inventories will build by 365 million from where they are now? Where's it all going to go, and as you've pointed out, the curve doesn't show any financial coverage to carry it.
IEA has for many years now, lost track of its mandate, mission and focus. It's completely shifted towards promoting and supporting the Green-Agenda no matter how retarded or misguided the case may be. This is politically driven, and not one single adult has ever slammed the table and told them to go back to doing their job. They should be defunded and scrapped together with all the false propaganda they have produced.
I see much more room to the upside for oil prices than to the downside. 1. IEA is not a particularly trustworthy source of forecasts. 2. Chinese demand has been underestimated due to much lower imports. But when you look at Chinese inventory draws total consumption is actually higher vs last year albeit at a small rate. 3. If the market were to actually be oversupplied and prices dropped considerably the Saudis/OPEC would not sit idle. So I think what IEA says is total nonsense
I won't comment on IEA forecasts but note that prices are set at the margin... Refinery margins are a much better predictor of the oil price than inventories.
Reminds me november 2021 before the Russian invasion of Ukraine: all analysts were seeing a tight 2022 spring, but EIA which saw surplus everywhere. The question is why EIA takes this approach today? For sure it helps price stay low until physical barrels demonstrate where the balance stands. let us see how Middle East drama evolves, we might get the answer there.
Hey - join those of us who are saying the same thing about the stock market. Where's all that transparent data that we thought we'd have by now? Price doesn't lie, and it's saying the market will be tight. And how ridiculous is it to even forecast a "1 million b/d" surplus? Are they seriously trying to say that inventories will build by 365 million from where they are now? Where's it all going to go, and as you've pointed out, the curve doesn't show any financial coverage to carry it.
IEA has for many years now, lost track of its mandate, mission and focus. It's completely shifted towards promoting and supporting the Green-Agenda no matter how retarded or misguided the case may be. This is politically driven, and not one single adult has ever slammed the table and told them to go back to doing their job. They should be defunded and scrapped together with all the false propaganda they have produced.
I see much more room to the upside for oil prices than to the downside. 1. IEA is not a particularly trustworthy source of forecasts. 2. Chinese demand has been underestimated due to much lower imports. But when you look at Chinese inventory draws total consumption is actually higher vs last year albeit at a small rate. 3. If the market were to actually be oversupplied and prices dropped considerably the Saudis/OPEC would not sit idle. So I think what IEA says is total nonsense
I won't comment on IEA forecasts but note that prices are set at the margin... Refinery margins are a much better predictor of the oil price than inventories.
Reminds me november 2021 before the Russian invasion of Ukraine: all analysts were seeing a tight 2022 spring, but EIA which saw surplus everywhere. The question is why EIA takes this approach today? For sure it helps price stay low until physical barrels demonstrate where the balance stands. let us see how Middle East drama evolves, we might get the answer there.
Sounds like virtual barrels and system dynamics, yes or yes?