You know this already, but I just wanted to say thanks for ramping up the notes and commentary despite everything else on your plate. It would’ve been a lot harder - and a lot less profitable - without your insights. And 8 years of forecasting crude storage? That’s insane. Hats off to you.
What happens to WTI prices if the U.S. bans oil exports? It will push WTI prices lower because:
a) Domestic storage will fill up quickly, and
b) With storage maxed out, producers will be forced to shut in production.
c) Prices will fall to levels where production becomes unprofitable or unattractive.
What I don't quite understand yet is why nat gas producers will benefit. Will do more research later but will appreciate any resources you have. Thanks!
You know this already, but I just wanted to say thanks for ramping up the notes and commentary despite everything else on your plate. It would’ve been a lot harder - and a lot less profitable - without your insights. And 8 years of forecasting crude storage? That’s insane. Hats off to you.
I’ve spent most of my investment career so far building expertise in an area no one gave a shit about until… 3 weeks ago.
So… 🤷♂️ lol
Not an easy journey indeed.
Btw is this accurate? Summarizing what I learned.
What happens to WTI prices if the U.S. bans oil exports? It will push WTI prices lower because:
a) Domestic storage will fill up quickly, and
b) With storage maxed out, producers will be forced to shut in production.
c) Prices will fall to levels where production becomes unprofitable or unattractive.
What I don't quite understand yet is why nat gas producers will benefit. Will do more research later but will appreciate any resources you have. Thanks!
A big portion of US natural gas production comes from US shale oil basins. If US shale oil production shuts in, then gas production would go down.
SPR release does not align well with an export ban.
Is there such a thing as export tariffs to split the difference? Or export cap?
Idk. I would have to see what gets announced before giving you a better take.