What's The Endgame Here? How Will The US/Iran Conflict Get Resolved?

In the past month, I’ve spent more time than I like on geopolitics. As I’ve said in the past, geopolitics usually falls into the grey area. I have never found it particularly interesting because of the lack of margin of safety. But since the Iran conflict started, I’m growing increasingly convinced this is a black-and-white issue. It’s all or nothing.

This piece is to give you some clarity on how I’m thinking about the Iran conflict and the various scenarios I see “resolving” the issue.

Demands

One thing that is worth noting is that most market participants are looking at the resolution of this conflict from the US’s perspective. Instead, we have to look at it from Iran’s.

The number one question we need to ask is: What do the Iranians want?

In my mind, it’s simple: a deterrent powerful enough that no one else will attack it again in the future.

So whether that’s acquiring a nuclear bomb, the control of the Strait of Hormuz, or a regional framework in place similar to that of NATO, Iran needs physical guarantees.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz

In a WCTW piece published on March 31, 2026, titled “The Unacceptable Status Quo And Why The Oil Market Will Never Be The Same Again.” We said that a toll arrangement is a non-starter.

From most generalists’ perspectives, the toll fee might not seem like much. A $2 million payment on cargo worth $200 million is a small price to pay, but money is not the issue here; it’s the ability to enforce traffic flow.

Following the craziness we saw on April 17, when the Iranian foreign minister declared that the Strait of Hormuz was open, the IRGC physically implemented the closure of the Strait. This was the Tom Hanks had COVID moment for me. This single event changed how I thought about the geopolitical landscape.

Again, as I explained in the “oil market breaking point is here” article, this was the first time since the conflict began that we saw tankers trying to leave in size. Prior to this, most tankers were afraid of mines or didn’t move due to insurance issues. This event clarified everything for me. The physical enforcement is going to be a major issue in the years ahead.

Now that we are nearly 3 months into this conflict, the Iranians are demanding that the control of the Strait of Hormuz be a precondition to even starting negotiations.